Feb 10, 2024

What is the Golden State Price Per Bitcoin? $2,500,000+ Per Bitcoin

 What is the Golden State Price Per Bitcoin?

$2,500,000 Per Bitcoin.

Here’s Why.

Historically, the 10-year treasury rate has had a medium yield of 3.81% (vs. 4.17% today), roughly half of the medium yield of the S&P 500, which has been 6.67% medium (vs. only 3.67% today). From this historical perspective, stocks have typically enjoyed nearly 2x higher yields than bonds, since equities offer greater return for the greater risk.

But today, the 10 YTR is 4.17%, which is actually higher than the yield on the S&P 500, which is only 3.67%. 

Of course, who wants to own bonds in an inflationary environment (getting 4.17% when their principal is losing its value due to actual inflation being 7.2%?)  But also, who wants to put their money at risk with equities for only a 3.67% yield? 

There’s simply too much money that has been created in the past 3 years. And people wonder why the prices of homes, rent, utilities, food, etc. have more than doubled in most categories and geographies in the U.S.

To grasp the scale of the Fed's monetary expansion, we must rewind 22 months. In early 2020, the amount in circulation stood at $4.0192 trillion. By January 4, 2021, it surged to $6.7 trillion. Subsequently, the Fed accelerated its efforts, and by October 2021, the figure had soared to $20.0831 trillion circulating dollars.

When the Fed doubles the money supply, it distorts values and risk-reward models, and forces savers to become investors in things they wouldn’t normally invest in (would you invest in a company if you knew the yield on it would only be 3.67% as it is today for the average S&P 500 stock?)

Bitcoin offers society - even those not investing in it directly, a stable, decentralized, and unalterable monetary system and store of value that solves many of the challenges of inflation and crony-capitalism that have been part of our society since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Bitcoin provides us citizens a bucket to absorb the inflation created by the Fed, to bring prices back into what I call a “golden state” of equilibrium and fair value.  

If/when the yields return to historic norms, it will be largely due to Bitcoin’s role in imposing discipline upon central bankers as it relates to inflation. 

Currently, the S&P 500 has a market capitalization of $41.568 trillion dollars, as so much of the liquidity in the market hasn’t found a safe and profitable home to live in, it resorts to what it knows: the stock market, or real estate, or bonds, etc. The yield of 3.67% produces only $1.525 trillion in earnings.

Assuming those earnings held constant ($1.525 T) on a historic average yield of 6.67%, the S&P would instead have a market capitalization of $22.871 T, or about half of what it’s currently priced at. Most investors, historically speaking, would want to get at least 6% yield on their equities. 

Bitcoin helps facilitate this as a means of absorbing excess liquidity by becoming a more stable store of value, until such opportunities arise where an investment (that is, an actual return of significant return on one’s investment) is warranted. 

To the extent Bitcoin continues to do its job and function as a greater store of value, it can function as “rat poison” for the banking cartel and absorb the excess liquidity in the market ($41.568 T vs. $22.871) which comes to an estimated excess liquidity of $18.696 T if we’re looking at just the S&P 500 and not other asset classes such as bonds, real estate, gold, etc. 

Assuming this excess of $18.696 T finds its way into the only rational place where a store of value can be found (Bitcoin), in today’s dollars, we’d see each Bitcoin being worth $890,285 ($18.696 T / 21 M Bitcoins). 

Of course, that assumes it all happens at once, and that the excess “irrational liquidity” is absorbed proportionally into these 21 M Bitcoins. But of course we know most people who buy bitcoin never sell, and that there’s only so much of it left. 

The reality is that 95% of the supply of bitcoin will already have been mined by 2026 and what’s left on exchanges, net of new mining and those being gobbled up by the new government-approved ETFs, and considering that 70% of bitcoin doesn’t sell (hodl rate) means that this $18.696 T of excess liquidity will have to flow into what’s left of the limited Bitcoin supply: which is only about $1.3M bitcoin left to be mined, and approximately 30% of the current bitcoin supply available for trade as is typical in a given year (5.91M coins), netting a possible 7.21 bitcoins at the high end that might be available to trade, given the historic psychographics of bitcoin holders vs. traders. 

That leaves us with a “golden state” price per Bitcoin estimate of $2,595,833 per coin, assuming no additional inflation (which won’t happen of course). 

Of course, the price of bitcoin will continue to increase relative to broken fiat currencies even after it hits $2.5M+ per coin. 

But only until the price of Bitcoin reaches its golden state of ~$2.5M per coin in today’s market environment would it make rational sense to invest it in other places, like a saturated, overpriced stock market given today’s excess liquidity allocated towards the S&P at today’s prices.  

Aug 22, 2022

Why I Love Work

“I need to work. It’s the one time my thoughts will cooperate with me.”

― Dan Groat, Monarchs and Mendicants

As a teenager whenever I misbehaved, which was quite often, I would get hands on my throat, or a belt or metal ruler across my butt and legs from my dad.  There were times I left the scene of a lashing with swollen, bloody legs.  And there were times when I thought my dad wanted to kill me. 

To escape the turmoil of life in a dysfunctional home, I fell in love with work.

I worked throughout my childhood from age 12 and up, even though it was still illegal to hire kids under 16 at the time in Texas. 

I worked at baseball concession stands as a cook and cashier, McDonalds, Subway, the grocery store as a shelf stocker, and at Lexon Medical as a file clerk. 

I routinely received employee of the month awards, and felt that I was a good, honest, hard worker, always looking for opportunities to make others’ jobs easier by going the extra mile.  

Work was and still is a form of therapy for me.

Though work may not be an economic necessity, work, and the inner vitality and value that comes with it, is and always has been a spiritual necessity. 

I love work.  

That said, I felt school work was mostly trite and trivial.  I graduated high school in the bottom 3% of my class with the equivalent of a D-average. I just didn’t care. I spent most of my days in class daydreaming of being elsewhere, as I was for the majority of my school experiences, a small boy who seemed to attract bullies and fights for whatever reason. 

Some of the bullies I still remember by name would come up to me and punch me in the face for no reason at all, other than to prove that I wouldn’t fight back.

Others would spit on me, or pick me up and run me into a wall or try to shove me into a locker, or trip me or push me to the ground.  

I did occasionally deserve the licking I got, as I had a quick wit and a sharp tongue.  But my insults against others were typically minimal, as they led to fights I’d almost always lose on account of my small size. 

That was, until I was introduced to boxing.

And then my love for work was channeled into a whole new path.

But that's a story for another day.

Aug 19, 2022

Increasing Power Thru Family Ties

"The family is a link to our past, and a bridge to our future.” – Alex Haley

I was born in Provo, Utah in December of 1976.  

My given name was Kent Burton, named after my father, Kent.

My parents were both young, newly married, and attending Brigham Young University in Provo Utah.  They were far from the home they grew up in, and from parents and family, most of whom still lived in Louisiana.

They never completed their college education, and I learned later in life that both struggled with severe depression.  Both contemplated suicide when I was a toddler, and my dad confessed in later years to nearly pulling it off with a loaded gun to his head up in the mountains.  

I’ll admit that I grew up in fear of my dad, and our relationship was often strained, if not explosive.  He believed in being firm, since he felt his dad, McKay Burton, was too soft. 

And although they were extremely devout in their LDS faith, my grandparents, McKay and Rene Burton and their 7 children and grandchildren have on the whole struggled with great tragedies in life, as their children or grandchildren have had numerous incidents of divorce, abuse, poverty, and crime.  My dad and us children were one of the exceptions, comparatively, in many respects, or so it may seem.. 

McKay and Rene Burton’s ancestors both have deep roots that trace back to the early members of the Church, including direct ties to Anson Call and Joseph Fielding.  Many of these early LDS church pioneers were beaten, tortured, raped and in some instances killed; almost all of the early pioneers had their property stolen from them, on account of mob violence and persecution against the early Church.  

My mom’s parents, Moses, who was Lebanese, and Barbara who was mostly Scottish, were much more firm and disciplined with their children.  Each of their 6 children have had relative success and happiness in their lives.

Many of Moses’ ancestors, the Attayas and the Salibees, fled from Lebanon due to Muslim persecution and hostility against them due to their Christian faith. 

McKay Burton
May 21, 1924 ~ May 24, 2021 (age 97)

Moses Attaya
NOVEMBER 7, 1922 – JUNE 4, 2019 (age 96)

Both of my grandfathers were named after prophets. McKay being named after latter-day prophet David O. McKay, a close friend of the family when he was young, and Moses being named after the ancient prophet who helped deliver Israel from slavery in Egypt.

They both fought in World War II as pilots and suffered through the great depression in their youth. Both were very strong in their Christian faith, and believed in and fought for the freedoms it would seem we Americans take for granted today. I believe their generation was and is the greatest generation our country has ever seen.

On both sides of my family, my LDS-Christian father’s side, and my Methodist-Christian mother’s side, fleeing cruel and unfair opposition (even opposition sponsored by the government) is in our roots.

And so, my opinion of the government and its overbearing role in people’s lives - especially when imposing itself unfairly upon individual rights, or freedoms of worship or speech or commerce, isn’t very favorable. 

For many more reasons which I’ll elaborate on in more detail later on, besides just my own upbringing and family history, I’m a Christian and a conservative libertarian.

This conservative libertarianism value system for me is defined as one who believes in the advocacy of economic and legal principles such as fiscal discipline, respect for contracts, defense of private property and free markets; fewer laws banning minor crimes, and the traditional conservative stress on self-help and freedom of choice under a laissez-faire and economically liberal capitalist society with social tenets such as the importance of religion and the value of religious morality through a framework of limited, constitutional, representative government.

Always remember that there is great strength in knowing our ancestors and great power in honoring the legacy of our forefathers.